Dealing with Defeat: Fake News and Desperation in Ethiopia

 Dealing with Defeat: Fake News and Desperation in Ethiopia

By John Harms

Since November 4, 2020, Ethiopia has been at war with itself. Disputes over political control spiraled into violence after the Ethiopian Government moved military units towards the northern Tigray region, sparking a preemptive attack by the ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front which saw the army’s Northern Command essentially obliterated. In a single night, a significant segment of the Ethiopian military was either dead, captured, or had defected to join the TPLF. The war which followed was rather quick, with the Ethiopian government calling in old enemies turned allies in Eritrea to attack Tigray from the north, while the ENDF supported by Amhara militias attacked from several roads in the south. The offensive to take all the major cities in Tigray was complete in a month. Over the course of the next 7 months, however, the TPLF retreated into the countryside. You see, the TPLF had a plan. They had prepared for this.

Tigray in Ethiopia. To the north is Eritrea. (Map from MSNBC)

After the defeat of the communist dictatorship of Ethiopia in 1991, the TPLF took over Ethiopia and ruled for 27 years. During that time, Ethiopia saw large economic progress, but suffered intense political repression. The TPLF knew that they would not last in power forever. Over the course of their regime, they embezzled billions from the national economy, filling their pockets and developing their home region while other areas of Ethiopia languished in squalor. During that time, they spent large amounts of money purchasing weapons and ammunition which were then buried in the countryside. In 2020, these stashes were enlarged with new weapons from the Northern Command. Throughout the beginning of 2021, they were opened, and tens of thousands of eager recruits were armed. Throughout the summer of 2021, the TPLF, now reformed as the Tigray Defense Force, wracked up victory after victory. In a month, they had reclaimed the majority of Tigray and went on the offensive, chasing down government forces.

Map of territorial control Tigray on July 13. (Posted by EritreaHub, taken from my map)

With the TDF making rapid gains, the government hurriedly announced a unilateral ceasefire, which was promptly ignored. The TDF launched wide offensives south into the Amhara region, seeing large gains. The government, as a result of these actions has essentially gone into panic mode. Every gain is denied, the internet is shut off, and phone lines are cut. This war is no longer just a law and order operation, it’s a matter of national survival. Should the TPLF win, then the very existence of the country is at risk. 

With the announcement of a “survival campaign”, the Ethiopian population as a whole was introduced to the war. What before was a regional problem which was largely ignored by the wider populace became a national issue. From this, the #NoMore campaign was established by pro-government activists (cheered on and organized by the government’s media, of course). This campaign was and is directed towards foreign media and international organizations who criticize the war and call for peace. As the government becomes more and more authoritarian, the fascistic ideology of “us versus them” has been wholly endorsed. 

Ethiopians and Eritreans protesting against “foreign interference” (Awash 90.5 FM)

The Ethiopian government has pretty decisively lost the propaganda battle internationally when it comes to the war, and instead has focused on garnering support domestically and amongst so-called “anti-Imperialists” in the West. Instead of attempting to refute claims of massacres and military defeats, the Ethiopian government has instead labeled the foreign press as TPLF agents spreading fake news, and indeed has sent letters to multiple outlets informing them that they will be stripped of their journalistic licenses in the country should they continue to report what the TPLF says. 

Letter of warning to Reuters (From @MapEthiopia)

The Ethiopian government has gone and created their own enemies. They accuse the international media of only giving the TPLF’s perspective while actively trying to shut down all discussion. As such, the government has alleged that a grand international conspiracy is taking place against Ethiopia. Yes, the West, the US, aid organizations, even the UN, all involved. 

Anti CNN-Shirt at a protest (From state broadcaster FBC)

As the rebels creep closer to the capital and pro-government forces take loss after loss, the security situation in Addis Ababa and Ethiopia as a whole is expected to get worse as an increasingly desperate government looks for scapegoats to blame for their continual string of defeats. 

Anti-intervention protesters in Addis Ababa (From state broadcaster FBC)